IR Simplified: Classical Realism in Historical Context and the Neorealism of Today

1.    Greek Historian Thucydides: Arguably the first historian of the world, he belonged to Athens and wrote History of Peloponnesian War. (Circa 400 BCE)

·       Thucydides Trap: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” https://theconversation.com/the-thucydides-trap-vital-lessons-from-ancient-greece-for-china-and-the-us-or-a-load-of-old-claptrap-252954

·       "Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”

·       "Of the gods we believe, and of men we know, that by a necessary law of their nature they rule wherever they can.”

2.    Latin Adages:

·       “Si vis pacem, para bellum” which translates to “If you want peace, prepare for war”.

·       “Inter Arma silent leges” meaning "for among arms (war), the laws are silent”.

·       “Ultima Ratio Regum” or “the last argument of kings” was used as a declaration of war by rulers of the past.

3.    Nicollo Machiavelli: A Florentine diplomat and political philosopher, he wrote a treatise for rulers, The Prince, around 1513-15 CE.

·       “It is much safer to be feared than loved because ...love is preserved by the link of obligation which, owing to the baseness of men, is broken at every opportunity for their advantage; but fear preserves you by a dread of punishment which never fails”.

·       “Of mankind we may say in general they are fickle, hypocritical, and greedy of gain”.

Mearsheimer’s Offensive Realism

Unlike classical realists, many modern political scientists and IR theorists lean towards structural realism or neorealism i.e. the anarchy in global structure pushes states towards realism instead of greedy nature of power-hungry leaders. The two main groups among structural realists are defensive realists like Kenneth Waltz and offensive realists like John Mearsheimer.

1.    Five Assumptions of Offensive Realism:

·       States are key actors in the system, which is anarchic.

·       All states have some offensive military capability, while some have a lot.

·       It is impossible to know the intentions of other states with certainty.

·       Survival is the principal goal of states.

·       States are rational actors and act strategically instead of morally in pursuit of their goals or national interest (no permanent friends or foes).

2.    Three Resulting Behaviours:

·       States fear each other, although the level of fear varies case to case.

·       States understand it is a self-help world.

·       States attempt to maximize the amount of world power they control.

3.    Two Ultimate Goals of Great Powers:

·       Become a regional hegemon.

·       Make sure no other state dominates its region of world i.e. prevent rise of peer competitors.

4.    Example of USA’s Foreign Policy:

·       USA pursued regional hegemony from 1783 in Western Hemisphere.

·       That included a policy of continental expansion, designed to make her by far the most powerful country in region.

·       Monroe Doctrine of 1823 clearly declared that European powers cannot interfere with North and South American countries anymore.

·       USA achieved regional hegemony by 1899-1900.

·       Four potential peer competitors were destroyed by US intervention in 20th century.

o   Imperial Germany

o   Nazi Germany

o   Imperial Japan

o   Soviet Union

Conclusion: Mearsheimer’s theory successfully predicts that USA or any superpower will not tolerate any peer competitor whose hegemony can challenge the status quo. Based on this, there is a high probability of a US conflict with China in near future. This link provides a case study by Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for International Affairs. It shows that in last 500 years, this situation occurred 16 times and resulted in wars for 12 of those cases. https://www.belfercenter.org/programs/thucydidess-trap/thucydidess-trap-case-file